← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kempter, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 44% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 28% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 46' | 🟨 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim |
| 54' | ⚽ | Denis Thomalla · Heidenheim |
| 56' | 🟨 | Denis Thomalla · Heidenheim |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marnon Busch · Heidenheim |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 89' | 🟥 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 4082.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1508.73 | 1427.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.04 | 1.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 27.51 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |