← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 36% | 2.73 |
| Regensburg win | 35% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 491.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1478.83 | 1548.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.61 | 14.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.00 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.67 | 27.43 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.78 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |