← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
| Ingolstadt win | 27% | 3.61 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
| 28' | 🟨 | Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt |
| 56' | ⚽ | Phil Neumann · Ingolstadt |
| 61' | ⚽ | Frederic Ananou · Ingolstadt |
| 64' | 🟨 | Philipp Heerwagen · Ingolstadt |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | ⚽ | Stefan Thesker · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 125.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1571.53 | 1418.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.71 | -40.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.08 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |