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Greuther Furth 2–2 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win36%2.69
Greuther Furth win35%2.74
Draw29%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Jan Gyamerah · Bochum
37'⚽Robert Tesche · Bochum
38'🟨Danilo Soares · Bochum
39'🟨Sascha Burchert · Greuther Furth
45'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
56'⚽Lukas Gugganig · Greuther Furth
83'🟨Maximilian Wittek · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Mario Maloča · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Lukas Gugganig · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Chung-yong Lee · Bochum
90'⚽Daniel Keita-Ruel · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots11
5On target5
3Corners5
18Fouls20
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.190.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.420.62
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
coach days427.00274.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.43
elo1497.751522.66
elo momentum (last 5)7.79-15.22
eye test v1-0.94-0.07
eye trend v1-0.32-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)45.1057.10
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.73
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.760.75
league points22.0019.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)46.2051.80
rest days7.044.00
scorer concentration0.330.29
season ppg1.831.58
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.4012.20
skill v1-1.170.12
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
squad age25.2029.29
state index0.04-0.24
sterile dominance v1-0.830.14
threat rate (last 10)0.320.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20