← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
| Dresden win | 24% | 4.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Aias Aosman · Dresden |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jannis Nikolaou · Dresden |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jannis Nikolaou · Dresden |
| 34' | 🟥 | Jannis Nikolaou · Dresden |
| 41' | 🟨 | Patrick Ebert · Dresden |
| 62' | 🟨 | Felix Kroos · 1. FC Union Berlin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 119.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1552.39 | 1456.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.89 | 22.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.70 | 25.62 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |