← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Waschitzki, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 35% | 2.74 |
| Bielefeld win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Cedric Brunner · Bielefeld |
| 60' | 🟨 | Nils Seufert · Bielefeld |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jan Hochscheidt · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 87' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mario Kvesić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Prince-Osei Owusu · Bielefeld |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 513.00 | 848.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1417.41 | 1479.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.53 | -21.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 26.43 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |