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SC Paderborn 07 3–3 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexander Sather, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win46%2.12
Draw28%3.46
SV Sandhausen win26%3.69

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Fabian Schleusener · SV Sandhausen
19'🟨Bernard Tekpetey · SC Paderborn 07
27'⚽Andrew Wooten · SV Sandhausen
35'⚽Babacar Guèye · SC Paderborn 07
44'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen
65'🟨Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen
66'⚽Bernard Tekpetey · SC Paderborn 07
80'⚽Marlon Ritter · SC Paderborn 07
83'⚽Andrew Wooten · SV Sandhausen
89'🟨Marlon Ritter · SC Paderborn 07

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
24Shots11
6On target4
10Corners4
7Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07SV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.580.67
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBenteler-Arena
1.80
coach days574.0026.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.202.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.242.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.13
dominance (last 5)0.540.55
elo1460.431442.26
elo momentum (last 5)11.23-0.19
eye test v10.92-0.52
eye trend v1-0.12-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)63.7055.20
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.601.29
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.670.69
league points16.008.00
league rank11.0016.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4071.80
possession avg (last 5)56.8048.20
rest days6.008.00
scorer concentration0.350.38
season ppg1.600.80
shot diff avg (last 5)2.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.4012.40
skill v10.32-0.64
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.803.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.603.20
squad age24.7027.02
state index0.08-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.10-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.320.27
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.300.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80