← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 51% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 24% | 4.04 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | 🟨 | Benno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Masaya Okugawa · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | ⚽ | Heinz Mörschel · Holstein Kiel |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 111.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 5.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1562.74 | 1579.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.04 | -1.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 11.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.53 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 26.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |