← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 41% | 2.36 |
| Magdeburg win | 29% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim |
| 21' | 🟨 | Dennis Erdmann · Magdeburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tobias Müller · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marius Bülter · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobias Müller · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tobias Müller · Magdeburg |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 4067.00 | 1572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1490.96 | 1481.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.90 | 3.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 66.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.57 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.78 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 26.33 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | — |