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SV Sandhausen 4–0 Ingolstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win40%2.44
Draw30%3.21
Ingolstadt win30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽ (pen)Andrew Wooten · SV Sandhausen
12'🟨Philipp Förster · SV Sandhausen
15'🟨Marvin Matip · Ingolstadt
16'🟨Robin Krausse · Ingolstadt
25'🟨Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt
38'🟨Leart Paqarada · SV Sandhausen
53'🟨Benedikt Gimber · Ingolstadt
66'⚽Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen
78'⚽Fabian Schleusener · SV Sandhausen
86'⚽Fabian Schleusener · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots7
4On target2
6Corners3
10Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenIngolstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.680.67
cards avg (last 5)1.804.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHardtwaldstadion
coach days18.0048.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.007.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.185.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.16
dominance (last 5)0.510.39
elo1426.111437.72
elo momentum (last 5)-11.88-54.58
eye test v1-0.46-0.54
eye trend v10.160.49
first sub minute (last 10)53.3051.80
form points (last 5)4.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.670.58
league points5.005.00
league rank17.0016.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.0010.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2070.00
possession avg (last 5)48.8045.20
rest days12.0012.00
scorer concentration0.400.25
season ppg0.560.56
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.4010.60
skill v1-0.55-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age27.9226.66
state index-0.62-1.26
sterile dominance v1-0.40-0.57
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.32
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.80