← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 46% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 25% | 3.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 26' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 36' | 🟨 | Dario Đumić · Dresden |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 53' | 🟥 | Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jannis Nikolaou · Dresden |
| 79' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sören Gonther · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 38.00 | 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1459.64 | 1414.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.17 | 13.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.48 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 27.67 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |