← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 39% | 2.46 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 34% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 36.00 | 554.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.17 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1449.48 | 1447.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.02 | 23.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 1.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 20.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.25 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 25.06 |
| state index | -1.12 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |