← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 54% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Heidenheim win | 21% | 4.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 98.00 | 4054.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1556.93 | 1487.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.65 | -2.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 26.30 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |