← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Bacher, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 43% | 2.28 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 30% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 492.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1401.29 | 1575.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.07 | -22.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.93 | 26.61 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |