← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dietz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 40% | 2.40 |
| Darmstadt win | 31% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 29' | 🟨 | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
| 39' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 47' | 🟨 | Wilson Kamavuaka · Darmstadt |
| 89' | ⚽ | Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julian Pollersbeck · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gotoku Sakai · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 308.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1498.49 | 1579.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.26 | -27.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 70.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 2.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 23.41 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 1.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |