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Bochum 1–0 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lasse Koslowski, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win43%2.24
Bielefeld win29%3.34
Draw28%3.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Tom Weilandt · Bochum
59'🟨Jonathan Clauss · Bielefeld
75'🟨Chung-yong Lee · Bochum
81'🟨Cedric Brunner · Bielefeld
90'🟨Jóan Edmundsson · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots20
3On target5
2Corners11
8Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.480.60
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days246.00826.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.011.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.14
dominance (last 5)0.480.53
elo1514.361498.79
elo momentum (last 5)-5.448.49
eye test v10.53-0.01
eye trend v10.38-0.51
first sub minute (last 10)52.1059.70
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.691.55
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.710.70
league points14.0012.00
league rank7.0011.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)53.2053.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.18
season ppg1.561.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.802.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0013.60
skill v1-0.00-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.60
state index-0.08-0.07
sterile dominance v10.29-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.210.29
threat rate (last 3)0.220.19
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00