← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 40% | 2.43 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Sebastian Andersson · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 45' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Ingolstadt |
| 56' | 🟨 | Paulo Otávio · Ingolstadt |
| 73' | ⚽ | Akaki Gogia · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt |
| 81' | 🟨 | Christopher Trimmel · 1. FC Union Berlin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 30.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.29 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1458.64 | 1547.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.10 | 5.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| league points | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 26.87 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |