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SV Sandhausen 0–1 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 Β· Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Florian Heft, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win42%2.30
Draw31%3.14
Magdeburg win27%3.60

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

54'🟨Romain Brégerie · Magdeburg
65'🟨Aleksandar Ignjovski · Magdeburg
73'⚽Christian Beck · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots7
2On target2
1Corners3
14Fouls9
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10β€”
box share (last 5)0.620.58
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
coach days821.001552.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.15
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueHardtwaldstadion
corner diff avg (last 5)
-1.20
0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.202.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.002.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.66β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.17
dominance (last 5)0.470.50
elo1448.191472.77
elo momentum (last 5)5.10-11.73
eye test v1-0.61-0.20
eye trend v10.560.54
first sub minute (last 10)52.6069.43
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.70β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.30β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20β€”
keeper form v10.760.53
league points5.006.00
league rank17.0015.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6065.00
possession avg (last 5)43.2046.60
rest days4.003.90
scorer concentrationβ€”0.33
season ppg0.710.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.8012.20
skill v1-1.09-1.44
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.43
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.40
squad age28.2026.12
state index-0.31-0.68
sterile dominance v1-0.89-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.320.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.40β€”