← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 51% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 |
| Greuther Furth win | 23% | 4.23 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Lukas Gugganig · Greuther Furth |
| 53' | 🟨 | Maximilian Sauer · Greuther Furth |
| 71' | 🟨 | Richard Magyar · Greuther Furth |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sebastian Ernst · Greuther Furth |
| 85' | ⚽ | Daniel Keita-Ruel · Greuther Furth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 19.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1468.27 | 1490.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.81 | 30.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |