← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 49% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 23% | 4.22 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Cenk Şahin · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 32' | 🟨 | Johannes Flum · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Christopher Buchtmann · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | 🟨 | Vasilije Janjičić · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 213.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1584.54 | 1465.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.30 | -19.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.98 | 26.38 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.56 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |