← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 59% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.37 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 19% | 5.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 34' | ⚽ | Bernard Tekpetey · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Philipp Klement · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mohamed Dräger · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Benteler-Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 546.00 | 485.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1440.27 | 1408.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.96 | 17.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.21 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.57 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.71 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.09 | 25.55 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |