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Heidenheim 3–2 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rene Rohde, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win38%2.54
Bochum win34%2.88
Draw28%3.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim
17'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
21'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
31'⚽Tim Hoogland · Bochum
33'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
33'🟥Anthony Losilla · Bochum
58'🟨Timo Perthel · Bochum
77'⚽Robert Glatzel · Heidenheim
78'🟨Chung-yong Lee · Bochum
80'🟨Jan Gyamerah · Bochum
83'🟨Robert Tesche · Bochum
84'⚽Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
21Shots10
8On target5
7Corners5
14Fouls8
0Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.530.45
cards avg (last 5)1.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
coach days4046.00240.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.20
corner diff avg (last 5)1.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.490.54
elo1477.801523.96
elo momentum (last 5)4.4810.57
eye test v10.450.69
eye trend v10.080.70
first sub minute (last 10)57.2054.80
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.740.73
league points8.0014.00
league rank14.004.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2074.20
possession avg (last 5)43.6055.20
rest days3.004.00
scorer concentration0.560.27
season ppg1.141.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.001.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.4013.20
skill v1-1.110.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.677.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.206.20
squad age25.7327.78
state index-0.020.32
sterile dominance v1-1.510.31
threat rate (last 10)0.360.22
threat rate (last 3)0.360.25
threat rate (last 5)0.350.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60