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Holstein Kiel 4–2 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win49%1.97
Draw26%3.66
Darmstadt win24%3.96

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Benjamin Girth · Holstein Kiel
23'⚽Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel
29'🟨Jannik Dehm · Holstein Kiel
29'⚽ (pen)Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
32'⚽Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel
39'⚽Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
45'🟨Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
51'🟨Jannik Dehm · Holstein Kiel
51'🟥Jannik Dehm · Holstein Kiel
55'🟨Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt
70'⚽David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel
84'🟨Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score2
14Shots16
6On target3
7Corners4
10Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHolstein KielDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.36
box share (last 5)0.700.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days89.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHolstein-Stadion
301.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.683.03
elo1526.181452.07
elo momentum (last 5)-32.89-8.27
eye test v1-0.52-0.05
eye trend v1-0.41-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)57.5065.60
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)2.021.08
keeper form v10.710.77
league points9.0010.00
league rank11.0010.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2073.80
possession avg (last 5)60.8051.40
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.130.25
season ppg1.291.43
skill v10.89-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
state index-0.46-0.41
sterile dominance v11.02-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40