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SC Paderborn 07 4–4 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dietz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win53%1.81
Draw26%3.69
Magdeburg win21%4.66

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽ (og)Tobias Müller · SC Paderborn 07
7'⚽Bernard Tekpetey · SC Paderborn 07
26'⚽Marcel Costly · Magdeburg
28'🟨Aleksandar Ignjovski · Magdeburg
32'🟨Christian Beck · Magdeburg
45'🟨Klaus Gjasula · SC Paderborn 07
62'⚽Sebastian Vasiliadis · SC Paderborn 07
63'⚽Christian Beck · Magdeburg
70'🟨Christian Strohdiek · SC Paderborn 07
77'⚽Tobias Schwede · SC Paderborn 07
82'⚽Felix Lohkemper · Magdeburg
83'🟨Philip Türpitz · Magdeburg
86'🟨Tobias Müller · Magdeburg
90'🟨Nils Butzen · Magdeburg
90'⚽ (pen)Philip Türpitz · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
17Shots13
6On target9
2Corners3
17Fouls16
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Magdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.28
box share (last 5)0.480.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days540.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBenteler-Arena
1545.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.62—
elo1458.611474.20
elo momentum (last 5)27.90-25.80
eye test v10.33-1.03
eye trend v10.350.52
first sub minute (last 10)64.0074.80
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.42—
keeper form v10.58—
league points8.003.00
league rank12.0016.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0065.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2044.60
rest days7.005.71
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg1.600.60
skill v1-0.34-1.51
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.60
state index0.15-0.66
sterile dominance v1-0.80-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.330.23
threat rate (last 3)0.410.28
threat rate (last 5)0.330.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.00—