← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 62% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.61 |
| Regensburg win | 17% | 5.74 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 11' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 17' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Regensburg |
| 21' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Marc Lais · Regensburg |
| 35' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Léo Lacroix · Hamburger SV |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marcel Correia · Regensburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 206.00 | 449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1618.94 | 1397.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.96 | -26.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| league points | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | — |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.13 | 26.98 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.37 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |