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Dresden 4–1 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden win43%2.26
Darmstadt win29%3.36
Draw29%3.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽ (pen)Moussa Koné · Dresden
18'⚽Marcel Heller · Darmstadt
36'🟨Dario Đumić · Dresden
45'🟨Linus Wahlqvist · Dresden
54'⚽Patrick Ebert · Dresden
60'⚽Philip Heise · Dresden
79'🟨Fabian Holland · Darmstadt
85'🟨Terrence Boyd · Darmstadt
90'⚽Moussa Koné · Dresden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots9
4On target3
2Corners1
17Fouls19
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDresdenDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.36
box share (last 5)0.680.70
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days11.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRudolf-Harbig Stadion
295.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.92
elo1413.201481.55
elo momentum (last 5)-3.9414.78
eye test v1-0.14-0.31
eye trend v10.190.12
first sub minute (last 10)57.6063.90
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.08
keeper form v10.670.85
league points6.0010.00
league rank11.005.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2070.60
possession avg (last 5)49.4050.00
rest days3.777.00
scorer concentration0.400.33
season ppg1.202.00
skill v1-0.30-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
state index-0.520.13
sterile dominance v1-0.88-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.340.27
threat rate (last 5)0.340.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.60