← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Tue, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 37% | 2.63 |
| Hamburger SV win | 37% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Linus Wahlqvist · Dresden |
| 45' | 🟨 | Patrick Ebert · Dresden |
| 55' | 🟨 | Vasilije Janjičić · Hamburger SV |
| 63' | 🟨 | David Bates · Hamburger SV |
| 67' | ⚽ | Hwang Hee-chan · Hamburger SV |
| 70' | 🟨 | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aias Aosman · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 7.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1441.46 | 1612.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.52 | 20.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 24.77 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |