← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 37% | 2.61 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 33% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.21 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 472.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.32 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1385.22 | 1460.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.36 | -9.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.81 | 26.76 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |