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Hamburger SV 3–2 Heidenheim

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win59%1.64
Draw25%3.93
Heidenheim win17%5.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Vasilije Janjičić · Hamburger SV
45'🟨Matti Steinmann · Hamburger SV
59'🟨Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim
64'⚽Patrick Schmidt · Heidenheim
74'⚽Pierre-Michel Lasogga · Hamburger SV
81'⚽Pierre-Michel Lasogga · Hamburger SV
83'⚽Pierre-Michel Lasogga · Hamburger SV
89'⚽Robert Glatzel · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots12
7On target5
4Corners7
9Fouls12
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHamburger SVHeidenheim
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.610.46
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVolksparkstadion
coach days198.004032.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.480.54
elo1606.951479.06
elo momentum (last 5)3.387.43
eye test v10.380.11
eye trend v1-0.39-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)57.6051.00
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.710.78
league points6.005.00
league rank9.0012.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4071.60
possession avg (last 5)59.0046.40
rest days19.0013.00
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg2.001.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4015.40
skill v11.10-0.77
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.40
squad age24.3426.15
state index0.490.01
sterile dominance v10.88-1.12
threat rate (last 10)0.220.34
threat rate (last 3)0.170.36
threat rate (last 5)0.220.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00