← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 59% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 |
| Heidenheim win | 17% | 5.78 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 198.00 | 4032.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1606.95 | 1479.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.38 | 7.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.34 | 26.15 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |