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Ingolstadt 3–2 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win58%1.68
Draw26%3.74
Erzgebirge AUE win16%5.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Thorsten Röcher · Ingolstadt
37'⚽Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE
50'🟨Tobias Schröck · Ingolstadt
67'🟨Lucas Galvao · Ingolstadt
70'⚽Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt
79'⚽Charlison Benschop · Ingolstadt
90'🟨Robin Krausse · Ingolstadt
90'⚽Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots11
5On target3
4Corners3
20Fouls17
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.640.46
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
2.40
coach days395.00456.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.03
corner diff avg (last 5)2.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)5.214.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.540.47
elo1486.501391.02
elo momentum (last 5)-13.49-16.44
eye test v1-0.35-1.06
eye trend v1-0.07-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)62.0064.60
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.710.58
league points2.001.00
league rank14.0016.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.0078.20
possession avg (last 5)51.8049.40
rest days6.006.00
season ppg0.670.33
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.409.40
skill v1-0.870.12
sot against avg (last 5)5.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.20
squad age26.5928.14
state index-0.39-1.04
sterile dominance v1-0.770.43
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.260.19
threat rate (last 5)0.300.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.00