← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Waschitzki, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 41% | 2.37 |
| Regensburg win | 33% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.69 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Andreas Geipl · Regensburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 421.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1421.62 | 1601.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.95 | 48.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 25.69 |
| state index | -0.58 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |