← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 69% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 11% | 9.07 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 29' | ⚽ | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 38' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 69' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 71' | 🟨 | Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Christian Tiffert · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 89' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 55.00 | 450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 4.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1587.55 | 1396.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.10 | -16.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 27.99 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |