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1. FC Köln 3–1 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win69%1.41
Draw21%4.70
Erzgebirge AUE win11%9.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
29'⚽Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE
38'🟨Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE
66'🟨Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE
69'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
71'🟨Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln
86'🟨Christian Tiffert · Erzgebirge AUE
89'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
90'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots8
7On target1
7Corners0
12Fouls16
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
box share (last 5)0.640.54
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRheinEnergieStadion
coach days55.00450.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.03
corner diff avg (last 5)1.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.064.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.07
dominance (last 5)0.470.48
elo1587.551396.75
elo momentum (last 5)-14.10-16.63
eye test v1-0.33-0.73
eye trend v10.15-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)50.7065.60
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.650.60
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2079.00
possession avg (last 5)54.2051.60
rest days12.0013.00
season ppg2.000.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.409.40
skill v10.960.35
sot against avg (last 5)6.202.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.80
squad age26.1327.99
state index-0.14-0.85
sterile dominance v10.540.60
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60