← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 54% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 |
| Heidenheim win | 21% | 4.69 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Heidenheim |
| 17' | 🟨 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
| 26' | 🟨 | Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel |
| 46' | 🟨 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
| 46' | 🟥 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kevin Lankford · Heidenheim |
| 62' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 42.00 | 3998.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.94 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1606.91 | 1468.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.53 | 3.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.07 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |