← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 49% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.54 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 24% | 4.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 35.00 | 430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 4.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1521.54 | 1401.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.84 | -47.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.69 | 27.11 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |