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Greuther Furth 3–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Aug 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win37%2.64
Greuther Furth win32%3.04
Draw32%3.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen
55'⚽Philipp Klingmann · SV Sandhausen
61'🟨Lukas Gugganig · Greuther Furth
78'⚽Daniel Keita-Ruel · Greuther Furth
81'⚽ (pen)Daniel Keita-Ruel · Greuther Furth
89'⚽Daniel Steininger · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots10
5On target5
6Corners8
19Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
box share (last 5)0.430.59
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
3.60
coach days337.00764.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.38
elo1447.881470.74
elo momentum (last 5)-14.80-10.48
eye test v1-0.27-1.00
eye trend v1-0.03-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)65.2055.30
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.670.73
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win7.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4069.80
possession avg (last 5)51.0047.20
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.009.00
skill v1-0.78-0.89
sot against avg (last 5)5.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.60
squad age27.0428.04
state index-0.55-0.36
sterile dominance v1-0.60-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.16
threat rate (last 5)0.280.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60