← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Aug 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 39% | 2.46 |
| Regensburg win | 33% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.47 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Konstantin Kerschbaumer · Ingolstadt |
| 14' | 🟨 | Marvin Matip · Ingolstadt |
| 19' | 🟨 | Andreas Geipl · Regensburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Thomas Pledl · Ingolstadt |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Frederic Ananou · Regensburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 23 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| coach days | 399.00 | 368.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1424.85 | 1497.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.07 | -39.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 26.73 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |