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Regensburg 2–1 Ingolstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Aug 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win39%2.46
Regensburg win33%2.96
Draw28%3.47

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Konstantin Kerschbaumer · Ingolstadt
14'🟨Marvin Matip · Ingolstadt
19'🟨Andreas Geipl · Regensburg
45'⚽Benedikt Saller · Regensburg
50'🟨Thomas Pledl · Ingolstadt
72'⚽ (og)Frederic Ananou · Regensburg
83'🟨Benedikt Gimber · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots13
9On target3
5Corners9
23Fouls20
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgIngolstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.460.71
cards avg (last 5)2.201.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueContinental Arena
coach days399.00368.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.403.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.513.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.28
dominance (last 5)0.560.51
elo1424.851497.53
elo momentum (last 5)-30.07-39.71
eye test v10.22-0.16
eye trend v1-0.190.18
first sub minute (last 10)45.7065.00
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.602.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.640.69
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet13.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8071.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8051.20
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.800.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.4011.40
skill v1-0.89-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
squad age26.0226.73
state index-0.60-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.97-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.360.32
threat rate (last 5)0.320.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40