← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Aug 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 21% | 4.62 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Holstein Kiel |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jonas Meffert · Holstein Kiel |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matti Steinmann · Hamburger SV |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | ⚽ | David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dominik Schmidt · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathias Honsak · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 155.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1603.97 | 1585.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.96 | 30.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 28.20 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |