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Málaga CF 3–0 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jun 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Avalos Barrera, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win60%1.60
Draw25%3.88
Elche CF win15%6.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Badr Boulahroud · Málaga CF
37'🟨Nino · Elche CF
40'🟨Javi Flores · Elche CF
55'🟨Federico Ricca · Málaga CF
60'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
63'🟨Tekio · Elche CF
66'⚽Federico Ricca · Málaga CF
71'⚽Hicham Boussefiane · Málaga CF
90'🟨Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
90'🟨Yacine Qasmi · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots8
8On target3
9Corners2
16Fouls11
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.35
box share (last 5)0.560.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days68.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Rosaleda
492.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.793.05
elo1514.241450.00
elo momentum (last 5)49.987.83
eye test v10.53-0.13
eye trend v10.39-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)57.3061.20
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.07
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.710.76
league points71.0055.00
league rank4.0011.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4078.80
possession avg (last 5)51.6052.80
rest days3.983.98
scorer concentration0.200.22
season ppg1.731.34
skill v10.370.39
sot against avg (last 5)4.007.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.00
state index0.60-0.21
sterile dominance v10.220.44
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20