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Cadiz 0–1 Extremadura

← Segunda División 2018 · Tue, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win73%1.32
Draw19%5.08
Extremadura win8%11.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Carlos Pomares · Extremadura
30'🟨— · Extremadura
44'🟨Fali · Cadiz
57'🟨David Querol · Cadiz
57'🟨Fausto Tienza · Extremadura
63'🟨Lolo González · Extremadura
78'🟨Javi Alamo · Extremadura
88'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
90'🟨Vincenzo Rennella · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
20Shots8
8On target4
10Corners1
12Fouls28
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizExtremadura
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.400.68
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
coach days1159.00123.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-5.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.009.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.571.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.04
dominance (last 5)0.540.42
elo1567.871431.46
elo momentum (last 5)-2.3110.06
eye test v1-0.350.04
eye trend v1-0.080.34
first sub minute (last 10)48.9063.10
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.670.83
league points65.0049.00
league rank8.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.4065.40
possession avg (last 5)41.4043.40
rest days9.009.00
scorer concentration0.180.36
season ppg1.591.17
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8010.60
skill v1-1.57-1.64
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.00
squad age28.2228.50
state index0.01-0.01
sterile dominance v1-1.02-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.40