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Albacete 1–2 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Tue, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win37%2.64
Draw34%2.88
Málaga CF win30%3.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF
39'🟨Gustavo Blanco · Málaga CF
40'🟨Javi Acuña · Albacete
45'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF
52'⚽Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
54'🟨Gustavo Blanco · Málaga CF
54'🟥Gustavo Blanco · Málaga CF
57'⚽Roman Zozulya · Albacete
65'🟨Santiago Gentiletti · Albacete
68'🟨Roman Zozulya · Albacete
72'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
78'🟨Monir El Kajoui · Málaga CF
81'🟨Nicolás Gorosito · Albacete
83'🟨Barri · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots8
3On target4
7Corners3
11Fouls22
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.490.66
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
coach days368.0064.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.202.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.09
dominance (last 5)0.530.57
elo1559.701544.11
elo momentum (last 5)26.5823.41
eye test v1-0.510.82
eye trend v10.480.30
first sub minute (last 10)65.3057.10
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.750.71
league points75.0070.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0080.80
possession avg (last 5)50.8053.40
rest days9.9211.00
scorer concentration0.230.20
season ppg1.791.67
shot diff avg (last 5)1.203.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4013.20
skill v10.060.64
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.206.00
squad age28.0227.32
state index0.450.61
sterile dominance v1-0.040.28
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00