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CA Osasuna 2–0 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Abraham Dominguez Cervantes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win58%1.65
Draw23%4.19
Las Palmas win19%5.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'⚽Juan Villar · CA Osasuna
37'🟨Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna
41'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
45'🟨Juan Cala · Las Palmas
51'🟨Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
64'🟨Alberto de la Bella · Las Palmas
79'🟨Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna
85'⚽Xisco · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots10
6On target2
4Corners6
16Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.480.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.43
box share (last 5)0.530.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days358.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
85.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.061.77
elo1582.311416.49
elo momentum (last 5)19.2214.15
eye test v1-0.020.28
eye trend v1-0.190.21
first sub minute (last 10)63.7060.10
form points (last 5)11.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.26
keeper form v10.790.64
league points78.0052.00
league rank1.0012.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2071.60
possession avg (last 5)47.8045.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.230.30
season ppg2.001.33
skill v1-1.05-0.89
sot against avg (last 5)1.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.40
state index0.74-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.19-0.67
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00