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Oviedo 1–0 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Avalos Barrera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win51%1.89
Draw29%3.28
Numancia win19%4.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Javier Hernández · Oviedo
33'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
47'⚽Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
54'🟨Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
83'🟨Yaw Yeboah · Numancia
89'🟨David Rodriguez · Numancia
89'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots8
3On target2
5Corners3
22Fouls14
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
box share (last 5)0.570.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days687.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Tartiere
352.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.39
elo1478.771424.12
elo momentum (last 5)-3.362.48
eye test v1-0.40-1.00
eye trend v10.050.20
first sub minute (last 10)65.3057.70
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.74
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.710.66
league points57.0044.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.6075.60
possession avg (last 5)48.6049.00
rest days5.797.92
scorer concentration0.180.26
season ppg1.501.16
skill v1-1.06-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.20
state index-0.23-0.39
sterile dominance v1-0.330.27
threat rate (last 10)0.170.18
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40