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Mallorca 1–0 Almeria

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Lopez Toca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win57%1.70
Draw27%3.58
Almeria win16%5.89

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Luis Rioja · Almeria
21'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Almeria
23'🟨Marc Pedraza · Mallorca
30'🟨— · Almeria
55'🟨— · Almeria
55'🟥— · Almeria
66'🟨Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca
75'⚽Salva Sevilla · Mallorca
90'🟨Sergio Aguza · Almeria
90'🟨Sergio Aguza · Almeria
90'🟥Esteban Saveljich · Almeria
90'🟥Sergio Aguza · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots4
3On target1
10Corners2
13Fouls19
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.43
box share (last 5)0.600.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days778.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
809.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.361.83
elo1503.621475.26
elo momentum (last 5)16.079.09
eye test v10.100.35
eye trend v1-0.140.36
first sub minute (last 10)57.3063.20
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.78
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.710.67
league points64.0055.00
league rank5.009.00
matches since blank13.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8066.00
possession avg (last 5)50.0051.40
rest days7.837.00
scorer concentration0.200.33
season ppg1.681.45
skill v10.20-1.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.80
state index0.440.01
sterile dominance v1-0.07-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.290.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.80