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Elche CF 3–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win40%2.42
Tenerife win31%3.17
Draw29%3.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Karim Azamoum · Elche CF
27'⚽Josan · Elche CF
38'🟨Borja Lasso · Tenerife
53'🟨Nino · Elche CF
67'🟨Suso · Tenerife
68'⚽ (pen)Xavi Torres · Elche CF
80'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
86'🟨Xavi Torres · Elche CF
88'⚽Nacho Gil · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots13
6On target3
1Corners3
22Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.710.64
cards avg (last 5)2.805.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
coach days471.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.682.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.14
dominance (last 5)0.500.43
elo1464.531442.86
elo momentum (last 5)-4.35-3.28
eye test v10.05-0.32
eye trend v10.28-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)59.4059.10
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.10
keeper form v10.680.75
league points52.0043.00
league rank13.0020.00
matches since blank9.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.0011.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2074.60
possession avg (last 5)51.2055.00
rest days6.008.00
scorer concentration0.250.19
season ppg1.301.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.80
skill v1-0.100.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.006.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age26.5128.26
state index-0.19-0.43
sterile dominance v1-0.090.36
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00