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Málaga CF 3–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win45%2.13
Draw31%3.16
Oviedo win24%4.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽ (pen)Adrián González · Málaga CF
30'🟥Keidi Bare · Málaga CF
43'🟨Jimmy Suárez · Oviedo
45'⚽Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF
53'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
63'🟨Joselu · Oviedo
80'⚽Miguel Cifuentes · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots11
8On target2
5Corners7
19Fouls15
0Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.690.52
cards avg (last 5)2.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Rosaleda
coach days42.00681.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)2.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.792.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.560.55
elo1512.211514.54
elo momentum (last 5)-13.889.48
eye test v10.31-0.35
eye trend v10.150.38
first sub minute (last 10)53.3065.80
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.710.74
league points61.0060.00
league rank7.008.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet7.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4066.00
possession avg (last 5)54.8047.00
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.210.18
season ppg1.561.54
shot diff avg (last 5)3.401.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.2010.60
skill v10.58-1.34
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age26.4728.10
state index-0.210.14
sterile dominance v10.22-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.240.17
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.20