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RC Deportivo La Coruña 1–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win45%2.13
Draw33%2.93
Cadiz win21%4.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Róber · Cadiz
28'🟨Pablo Marí · RC Deportivo La Coruña
43'⚽Quique · RC Deportivo La Coruña
45'🟨Matías Nahuel · RC Deportivo La Coruña
52'🟨Matos · Cadiz
58'🟨Federico Cartabia · RC Deportivo La Coruña
78'⚽David Querol · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots12
5On target5
5Corners4
14Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.42
box share (last 5)0.630.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days41.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
1136.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.503.54
elo1491.041538.86
elo momentum (last 5)-19.0411.27
eye test v1-0.530.02
eye trend v10.210.08
first sub minute (last 10)62.8051.00
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.97
keeper form v10.690.59
league points60.0061.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank4.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8070.80
possession avg (last 5)52.4040.60
rest days7.925.79
scorer concentration0.270.19
season ppg1.621.65
skill v10.36-1.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
state index-0.460.33
sterile dominance v10.58-1.06
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.00