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Almeria 5–3 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win43%2.26
Draw32%3.07
Elche CF win25%3.81

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽ (pen)Nacho Gil · Elche CF
9'⚽Nino · Elche CF
15'🟨Gonzalo Villar · Elche CF
15'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
37'🟨Nacho Gil · Elche CF
43'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
45'🟨Nino · Elche CF
45'⚽ (pen)Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
46'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
59'⚽Juan Carlos · Almeria
67'🟨Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
69'⚽ (pen)Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
85'🟨Sergio Aguza · Almeria
90'⚽Sergio Aguza · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score2
16Shots9
11On target5
5Corners7
25Fouls12
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
box share (last 5)0.660.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
465.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.812.66
elo1463.371450.09
elo momentum (last 5)-13.1013.79
eye test v1-0.240.06
eye trend v1-0.010.18
first sub minute (last 10)62.7059.80
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.79
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.730.75
league points52.0050.00
league rank10.0012.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8075.00
possession avg (last 5)53.6049.80
rest days7.006.75
scorer concentration0.310.26
season ppg1.411.35
skill v1-0.81-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
state index-0.29-0.11
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20