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Cadiz 1–1 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win41%2.34
Draw33%2.93
Málaga CF win25%3.82

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
18'🟨Gustavo Blanco · Málaga CF
22'🟨Keidi Bare · Málaga CF
23'⚽Ager Aketxe · Cadiz
35'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
37'🟨David Lombán · Málaga CF
51'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
60'🟨Mario Barco Vila · Cadiz
72'🟨Darwin Machís · Cadiz
86'🟨Hicham Boussefiane · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots9
5On target3
2Corners2
8Fouls24
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
box share (last 5)0.540.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1130.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
35.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.132.06
elo1542.651464.26
elo momentum (last 5)20.91-12.91
eye test v1-0.160.54
eye trend v10.080.46
first sub minute (last 10)50.5051.80
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.15
keeper form v10.620.73
league points60.0058.00
league rank5.007.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)45.4055.20
rest days8.389.20
scorer concentration0.200.21
season ppg1.671.61
skill v1-0.800.59
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.20
state index0.46-0.23
sterile dominance v1-0.52-0.05
threat rate (last 10)0.280.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.250.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60