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Tenerife 2–1 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Avalos Barrera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win45%2.15
Draw29%3.31
Las Palmas win26%3.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Mauro Dos Santos · Tenerife
37'🟨Luis Milla · Tenerife
45'🟨Luis Pérez · Tenerife
49'🟨David Timor · Las Palmas
55'🟨David Timor · Las Palmas
55'🟥David Timor · Las Palmas
61'🟨Iker Undabarrena · Tenerife
61'🟨Álvaro Lemos · Las Palmas
67'⚽Cristian Cedrés · Las Palmas
77'⚽Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
82'🟨Uroš Račić · Tenerife
87'⚽José Naranjo · Tenerife
90'🟨José Naranjo · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots13
6On target7
5Corners4
16Fouls17
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.36
box share (last 5)0.550.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
64.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.503.16
elo1430.541409.26
elo momentum (last 5)-12.82-16.37
eye test v1-0.10-0.04
eye trend v1-0.240.14
first sub minute (last 10)61.6058.70
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.20
keeper form v10.69—
league points40.0046.00
league rank18.0013.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.007.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4076.20
possession avg (last 5)54.4053.40
rest days7.006.10
scorer concentration0.170.33
season ppg1.111.28
skill v10.040.16
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
state index-0.59-0.63
sterile dominance v1-0.190.32
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00