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Zaragoza 0–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win36%2.69
Zaragoza win32%3.02
Draw32%3.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Pablo Marí · RC Deportivo La Coruña
13'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Zaragoza
36'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
42'🟨Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
79'🟨Alberto Guitián · Zaragoza
84'⚽Pedro · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots6
5On target1
6Corners0
17Fouls9
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.34
box share (last 5)0.580.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days154.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
33.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.531.89
elo1453.971480.06
elo momentum (last 5)15.19-28.93
eye test v10.33-0.31
eye trend v10.420.13
first sub minute (last 10)45.5062.30
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.79
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.760.66
league points44.0057.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0078.20
possession avg (last 5)56.4053.40
rest days5.927.88
scorer concentration0.220.28
season ppg1.221.58
skill v10.860.37
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
state index0.15-0.41
sterile dominance v10.450.53
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60